Newcastle v the system - is Saudi 2030 vision unrealistic?

 

David Hopkinson was remarkably bullish when taking on the role of Newcastle United chief executive at the end of last year.

The Canadian reckoned he could put Newcastle "in the debate about being the top club in the world" by 2030.

After Sunday's 2-1 home defeat by Sunderland, they are not even the top club in the north east in terms of the current Premier League table.

Manager Eddie Howe, under pressure for the first time in his four and a half years at St James' Park, was asked if the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) project was running out of steam.

"The club desperately want to be ambitious, but there's a limit to what we can spend," Howe said.

"I think the rules have made it very difficult - I don't know where we can beat that system."

Howe might have a point. Are the financial rules stifling Newcastle?

The more you generate the more you can spend

There is no doubt Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) have put the brakes on Newcastle.

It is why the Magpies support their replacement, Squad Cost Ratio (SCR), which comes in on 1 July. But will it reinforce the position of the elite?

The problem for PIF has always been that it was too late to the party.

Whereas Chelsea and Manchester City were able to spend freely to build their empire, governing bodies now have the shackles on.

PSR was put in place in 2013, well before the Saudi takeover.

Though Manchester City do face 115 charges over alleged spending breaches between 2009 and 2018.

PIF spent £404.7m in the first three years after buying the club in 2021.

But by bringing in only £50.4m from sales the stark reality of PSR hit home in 2024.

Newcastle had to sell Elliot Anderson (£35m) to Nottingham Forest to help stave off a points deduction.

They lost a high-quality academy product, a lad from Whitley Bay who came through Wallsend Boys Club.

The 23-year-old is now an England regular and very likely to go to this summer's World Cup.

BBC Sport understands that Forest would want £80m should he be sold this year.

PSR focuses on limiting losses, but SCR is about income. In short, the more you generate the more you can spend.

In the Premier League that will be 85%, though it is possible to spend as much as 115% in the first year and pay what is in effect a luxury tax.

On the surface, this sounds great. After all, Newcastle have recorded record revenues in each season under PIF.

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire says that for the Magpies it made total sense.

"The pluses outweigh the minuses," Maguire told BBC Sport. "With having a bigger stadium, hoping to either expand the stadium or move, they see the longer-term benefits of SCR."

But once you look under the hood you see that SCR might reinforce the financial dominance of the Premier League's established order.